SOUTH AFRICA

July 2003


Dear friends and colleagues,

Uncharacteristically, this column will not be about Israel. I spent most of July in South Africa, where I took part in the International Political Science Assoc. (IPSA) conference, delivered ten lectures at branches of Vista University and at Jewish communities across the country, participated on a radio show, toured and met people. I gave talks on the scope of tolerance, media ethics, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and the Gaza First Plan. The latter received some attention from the electronic and the print media.

In every country that one visits there are some things that strike out. In South Africa these things are:
• Animals. This is a good reason to travel to SA. Beautiful nature resorts. Beautiful animals in the wild. I returned with four rolls of film, mainly of animals one usually does not see in the Middle East, Europe and North America. The highlight: playing with 3 months old lion cubs. You cannot play with them when they 6 months old.
• Natural resources. Diamonds. Gold. Sugar. These are the more visible and talked about. SA is blessed with lots of good things. Some people of the audiences could not believe that Israel is not blessed with natural treasures (well, we DO have the Dead Sea minerals that are said to be very good for your skin). When I said we only have dirt they were utterly astonished: So much fighting and blood over this small piece of land for centuries, and all this mess for face cream?
• Fences. I have never seen so many fences in my life: of concrete, wood, barbed wire, stranded wire, iron wire, concertina wire. Long. Depressing. Some of them electrified, especially when white people are behind them. Upon my questions, my hosts reassured that they are incapable of killing people. Just to shock them. South Africa calls itself the Rainbow Nation; speaks of the unity of the 43 millions who live inside its long borders (many people of neighboring countries cross the borders every day to enjoy the relative affluence), of standing together – different, pluralistic yet together, but nowhere have I seen so many fences. Some designed to protect; others designed to hide.
• In Israel we chose to hire as many security guards as we can to protect society from terrorists. In SA there are no terrorists but the country suffers from a major internal security problem: crime. People are mugged; hijacked from their cars; houses are robbed; rape and murder are commonplace. From the moment I landed in SA I did not cease to hear about crime. People are poor. Desperate. Not enough jobs. Forty percent unemployment, possibly more. Crime is sort of a way out.
Three Israelis at the conference I attended were mugged on the day of arrival at knife point while strolling a main city of Durban during the night. They should have known better. A few more conference participants were mugged. Yet I hardly saw security people on the streets. As if there is a high decision to leave the streets to the criminals. One cannot avoid speculating that there is a hidden agenda.
I should note that the crime is aimed at anyone and everyone. It is not only black v. white. Often it is black v. black. At the same time, white people are still the more affluent in society and therefore suffer a great deal of the share. White people are hardly involved in such forms of illegality. You can find them in the white collar crime.
The only other place I've been where people speak frequently about crime is Mexico City but there the security is far more noticeable than in SA.
In newspapers, those "usual" kinds of crime (mugging, hijacking, rape and individual murder) are hardly mentioned. People told me that there is an order from above not to report of such cases because too much talk about crime undermines the SA spirit. No statistics is published. The media was ordered to report about positive things that take place in SA, not about negative issues. Such "negative" coverage also undermines the government of SA and this, of course, is not good. "Unusual" crime, on the other hand, is reported. For instance, a person kills his wife and children, possibly thereafter also himself. This will be reported. Also in Israel. I assume also in other parts of the world.
• Shanty towns called in SA "townships". Appalling. I've seen this phenomenon previously only in India. Kilometers upon kilometers of rough poverty. Millions of people living in the gutters, in accommodation made of anything that comes to hand: metal sheet, steel plate, wood, plastic. Many of those "houses" have no electricity or running water. No toilets. No basic standards of living. To warm themselves people light fires, inhaling the smoke and put their lives in jeopardy. Accidents have happened when the fire had spread rapidly, making the township a disaster area. It is hard to see any solution coming. Lot of resources need to be invested to tackle the problem. Building of decent neighborhoods is conducted on a slow pace. As long as those shanty towns exist, SA will continue to struggle with poverty and crime.
The coloured are living in better houses. Small and decent. Nothing one could envy but with basic standards of living.
The elite, still predominantly white, live in affluent neighborhoods. Things do change. Slowly.
• AIDS. The butcher of Africa, SA included. Kills hundred thousands of people, mainly black. Mainly women. 4 women to 1 man is the ratio. The government, loyal to its policy not to speak of difficult issues, does its best to ignore the issue, as if it would evaporate due to lack of concern. It won't. AIDS is eating the citizenry of SA with a huge spoon. Were Mbeki a white man I would accuse him of racism. At the conference scholars say that resources are available to fight against the disease but they are not made available to the public. This is staggering. Maybe things would have been different if the ratio was 4 to 1 against men.
• Beautiful people. Inside out. Kind. Hospitable. Warm. Nice. I am carrying very positive memories with me. I wish to thank the people who made my SA trip possible and who hosted me on the way: Gregg in Durban; Arnold, Nicolette and their lovely family, as well as Rachel and Yehoshua in Cape Town/Stellenbosch; Narnia, Miemie, Nadia and Vanessa in Port Elizabeth; Rhinda, Ronny, Derrick and Pierre in Bloemfontein; Diane, Koos, Lawrence and Danny in Pretoria and Johannesburg. I thank them all for their kind hospitality, care and concern.

Still, I cannot leave you without a word on Israel. Well, things are relatively quiet. Life in Israel is more peaceful during this cease fire. Hope that it would last. Forever.

The government continues with the erection of the fence, implicitly aiming to establish the new borders. During the process Israel takes into its side of the fence kilometers upon kilometers of land that was supposed to be within the confines of the new Palestinian state. Another recipe for future problems and costs, in blood and money.

Abu Mazen received a warm hug in Washington. Bush embraced the "new kid in town", listen carefully to his grievances regarding the road blocks, release of prisoners, illegal settlements, and "The Wall" (the Palestinians insist on calling the fence a wall) that isolates Palestinian towns and villages and swallows land in favour of the settlements. Sharon is on its way to Washington to voice his side.

With my best wishes, as ever,

Rafi


My last communications are available on http://almagor.blogspot.com
Earlier posts at my home page: http://lib-stu.haifa.ac.il/staff/rcohen-Almagor

NEWS: New Center for Democratic Studies, and My Sabbatical

August 2003


Dear friends and colleagues,

While in South Africa, the University of Haifa has approved the establishment of the Center for Democratic Studies and appointed me the head and director. This is the first center of its kind in Israel.

The aim of The Haifa Center for Democratic Studies is to promote awareness and understanding of civic culture in democracy. Recognizing the growing need to secure the foundations of democracy and to facilitate conditions for pluralism, the Center would establish a national and international forum for deliberation and discussion. The main focus will be on the role of ethics and justice in all spheres of public life: politics; economy; culture; academy; business; law; media and medicine.

The Center’s purposes include the strengthening of democratic values such as active participation in public life, professional ethics, accountability for one’s actions, and civic equality. The Center will also focus attention upon abuse of power and violation of basic human rights. It will encourage open debate on the vital importance of freedom of expression, in its broad sense, in democratic life. The term ‘free expression’ includes freedom of assembly, freedom to demonstrate and to picket, free media, artistic freedom, and academic freedom. At the same time the Center will aim to increase public awareness of the need to set boundaries to liberty and tolerance. We are living in an era of political violence and extremism, and we need to find ways to overcome the antidemocratic forces that seem to go from strength to strength. We must find ample ways for tackling antidemocratic phenomena that aim at the destruction of democracy. On this front the Center sees an urgent need for education on all levels: primary schools, high schools and universities.

To achieve these ends, the Center will do the following:

• Establish an M.A. program for ethics and democratic studies at the University of Haifa. This would be an interdisciplinary program in which excellent students could select courses in political science, philosophy, sociology, law, communication, history and education.
• Conduct biennial international conferences, each dedicated to a different topic, such as equality; media ethics; multiculturalism; medical ethics; business ethics; free speech; civic participation; professional ethics; feminism, etc.
• Publish, and help to publish, books in Hebrew and English whose subject matters lie within the frame of reference described supra.
• Establish The Journal of Ethics, Law and Society (full details in Appendix 1).
• Hold annual competitions on themes that deal with ethics and democratic studies in all three levels of education, primary schools, high schools and universities.
• Co-operate with the Ministry of Education to increase awareness and improve education of democratic studies at all levels of school education.
• Co-operate with the existing foundations that are working at schools.
• Found Student Exchange Programs between the University of Haifa and selected universities all over the world. We would like to have students from universities, such as Harvard, Yale, Chicago and Berkeley in Haifa and would like to give our finest students the opportunity to study in those institutions. In addition, excellent students of Latin-American universities who are interested in Middle East studies could visit the Center for a limited period of time (one or two semesters), while Israeli students interested in Latin-American studies might visit corresponding universities. The students will be selected on a competitive basis.
• Cooperate with similar centers that exist in other universities. In the first instance attempts will be made to establish channels of communication and cooperation with The Program on Ethics and the Professions, Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University; The Kennedy Institute of Ethics, Georgetown University; The Hastings Center, New York; The Center for Clinical Medical Ethics, University of Chicago; The Center for Human Values, Princeton University; The Centre for Social Ethics and Policy, University of Manchester, England; The Center for Human Bioethics, Monash University, Australia; The McGill Centre for Medicine, Ethics and Law, Canada; The Centre for Applied Ethics, The University of British Columbia, and The Netherlands Institute for Advanced Study in the Humanities and Social Sciences.

This, of course, is not an exhaustive list. I'd be happy to establish cooperation with further institutions, examining in each instance to what extent we could cooperate and develop relationships. Please do not hesitate to contact me if you have something in mind.

• Establish an extensive website describing the activities of the centre, with links to the sites of the above centers.


As is the case with all academic centers in Israel, my Center needs to be funded by external money. The University of Haifa grants a small sum of money to start, and I am required to recruit the necessary funds for the upcoming activities. Hence I now embark on a fund raising campaign.

If you can be of any help in this process, please let me know. I need one person, one family, who might be interested to give name and money so I – together with some twenty colleagues at my university who agreed to be part of the Center – start devote our energies to advance and promote liberty, tolerance, pluralism, diversity, multiculturalism and peace in Israel.

On 24 August we are scheduled to leave for Baltimore on sabbatical. I received a fellowship at the Hopkins Center for Policy Studies and Visiting Professorship at the Department of Communication. My address in the US will be:

Office:

Prof. Raphael Cohen-Almagor
Institute for Policy Studies
Johns Hopkins University
3400 N. Charles Street
5th Floor Wyman Park Building
Baltimore, MD 21218
USA.
Phone: (410) 516-4906
Fax: (410) 516-8233

I hope to retain my e-mail address.

Home:

Cohen-Almagor
The Carlyle Apartments
500 W. University Pkwy
Baltimore, MD, 21218
USA.
Phone: (410)889-4500
Fax: (410)467-3073.


I look forward to see as many of my North American friends as I can during the coming year. Some of you have already invited me to deliver lectures. Others no doubt will pass my way.

With my best wishes, as ever,

Rafi


My last communications are available on http://almagor.blogspot.com
Earlier posts at my home page: http://lib-stu.haifa.ac.il/staff/rcohen-Almagor

June 2003

Dear friends and colleagues,

Unfortunately, my last communication has proved to be overly optimistic and hopeful. Since then violence has ensued. One could reasonably envisage that some sections of the Palestinian authority would try to insert sticks in Abu Mazan's wheels. One also understands that every success of Abu Mazan undermines Arafat's authority. Yet, possibly as wishful thinking I hoped Israel and Palestine understand that violence is not the answer to anything. All it does is to breed more violence.

I tend to believe that Sharon is willing to make some painful concessions. I also tend to believe Abu Mazan's good intentions. At this point, however, these intentions are not sufficient. Both are unable to halt terrorism.

Israel's attempt to kill Rantisi immediately after the Aqaba summit was not prudent. It provoked, as could be expected, further violence. Israel claims Rantisi is not merely a political leader of the Hamas but is heavily involved in orchestrating and preparing murderous attacks on Israel. The timing of the attack, however, ill-served any attempt to put the peace wagon on the right track.
Targeted killing is a complicated issue. Granted that a state is entitled to fight down terror and to defend its civilians, should it resort to such means as well? Against targeted killing it has been argued that Israel is killing people without trial or due process; that mistakes do happen and innocent lives might be taken; sometimes, during the operations not only the targeted individual is killed but also bystanders, including women and children. Furthermore, while targeted killing may disrupt and deter some attacks, it is likely to provoke more killings of civilians as revenge and makes it more difficult to forge peace. Moreover, this policy of targeted killing offends our sense of moral sensibility when government officials are acting like hit squads.
For targeted killing it is argued that this policy has prevented some attacks against civilians, made terrorists devote time and energies to hide instead of planning murderous operations, weakened the effectiveness of terrorist organizations, and possibly served as deterrence. Targeted killing is performed after ample consideration and in accordance with established and well-defined criteria. It is not arbitrary and every effort is being made by the intelligence not to maim innocent bystanders. Terrorists are not immune to being targeted and killed. Fighting them cannot be conducted in accordance with pacifist principles and with velvet gloves. The Palestinian suicide bombers have no qualms or reservations. They seek to kill any innocent Israeli civilian, be it old people, children, women or infants. The more, the better. Any place is suitable for the evil attacks: restaurants, coffee shops, discos, night clubs, pubs, schools and kindergartens, universities, buses. Stopping these vicious operations is of obvious importance and provides justification for targeted killing as means of self-defence. Furthermore, casualties are minimized for both sides, as targeted killing does not resort to massive scale operations that endanger both Israeli soldiers and Palestinian civilians. Indeed, targeted killing is a legitimate means to strike at those who terrorize lives of innocent civilians. Since the policy is applied against those who are either on their way to murder ("ticking bombs") or prepare the murderous attacks, targeted killing enables Israel to protect its civilians by eliminating those involved in the heinous attacks.

The debate on targeted killings has reached the Israeli public who after the Rantisi failed attempt said that Israel should halt this method for the time being and let the peace option a chance to materialize. Fifty five percent supports the government's decision to adopt the American Road Map. At the same time, 52% believe that the implementation of the Road Map will not lead to a peace settlement. Only 36% are optimistic regarding the Map success. 62% don't believe in Abu Mazan's ability and will to implement the Palestinian side of the deal.

Fifty nine percent of the Israeli public favour freezing all building operations within the settlements. 62% support the ending of Israeli occupation of the West Bank and Gaza. 57% support the establishment of a Palestinian state. The majority of the Israeli public realized that the continuation of occupation is an assured recipe for terror and violence. Yet, the public would like to have more assurances from the Palestinian counterpart. The Israeli public believes the majority of Palestinians did not forego their dream to oust Israel into the sea and bring the Zionist state under the Palestinian flag.

Next week I am scheduled to leave for South Africa where I intend to participate in the IPSA conference and deliver some lectures on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. As ever, I will promote the Gaza First Plan as a possible option to break the deadlock. The Plan keeps floating in the diplomatic corridors and is now very much on this government's agenda. Gaza is a test case for many issues at stake: security, evacuation of settlements, Palestinian sovereignty, economy. Muchamad Dahlan enjoys a reputation of someone who can deliver, if he wishes. Time will tell whether this reputation is justified, and his real intentions.

With my best wishes, as ever,

Rafi

POLITICS2003



May 2003


Dear friends and colleagues,

Recently two terror attacks were launched on Israel. The first immediately after Abu Mazan’s pressure on Arafat to comprise his government as he wished was successful. The attackers came not from the Hamas or Islamic Jihad but rather from the Tanzim, under Arafat’s supposed control, so as to say to Abu Mazan: There is a lot of work ahead of you. Don’t celebrate too much. Your victory should be put in the right perspective. Control is yet to be achieved.

The second terrorist attack was unusual. It came from Gaza, the first attack that came from the Strip. The terrorists were en route from London, via Syria and Jordan, to Gaza and Tel Aviv. Terrorism is an international phenomenon that should receive a close attention by the western world. As I write these lines, potential terrorists are planning their next attack. They may come from North America or Europe, and they have the entire planet to choose targets from. This time they decided to terrorize Tel Aviv. Next time – who knows?

Still, putting things in perspective we should acknowledge the circumstances and somewhat unusual nature of these two attacks. They show that the IDF is doing an excellent work in controlling the scene. Abu Mazan seems genuine in his attempts to fight terrorism down. With time and patience his struggle will prove successful. As for international terrorism, here there should be tighter cooperation between security services of different countries to forestall future terrorist attacks. I think the wave of terrorism, which was part of Israeli life during the past three years, is shrinking.

The Labour Party is moving from one crisis to another and seems to be shrinking as well. Amram Mitzna announced his resignation. I cannot say this came as a surprise to anyone who knows something about Israeli politics. At the end, he did much better than was expected of him when he announced his intention to dive into the muddy national politics. I for one did not expect him to win the party’s leadership. The fact that he survived for a few months is an achievement in itself. He did not receive cooperation from the majority of his party’s leadership. He did not understand that popular support does not easily translate to party support. The sharks controlling the muddy water prevented him from swimming there. He became isolated and frustrated until saying: Enough is enough.

Frankly, it is hard for me to see any of the existing Labour sharks making an impact on Israeli politics and presenting a challenge to the Likud. I am not very impressed with any of them. Labour needs a new blood, urgently. Otherwise it will continue to shrink and to fade away.

Tomorrow we will be celebrating our Independence Day. I hope Israel will enjoy this festivity in peaceful and joyful atmosphere. It is one of the nicest festivals we have. If others don’t spoil it, it is full of joy, celebration, fireworks, music and feeling of togetherness. It is one of the occasions that make Israel a special and beautiful place.

With my best wishes, as ever,

Rafi




April 2003

Dear friends and colleagues,

I am writing to you with much relief but still with anxieties for the long run. Yesterday the high security alert, announced at the beginning of the coalition campaign in Iraq, was aborted. People can now unpack their storage secured rooms, unwrap the nylons we put on the windows of the secured rooms in many houses, and repack the gas masks. For weeks we were asked to be attached to the masks and to take them with us whenever we go. Reserves that were called to serve during emergency time are slowly discharged. We are allowed to return to normal life. At least we try.

When the war on Saddam started many people in the Tel Aviv area left their homes, fearing a missile attack. People left for the north, for Eilat, for other countries. When the government decided not to close the kindergartens and schools, the majority of people had returned. We were required to take our masks with us, and the number of people obeying this requirement went down as the war progressed and the coalition army captured more Iraqi cities.

The wide majority in Israel supported the war on Saddam. The wide majority in Israel looked with cynicism, surprise, even disbelief, at the “peace marches” in Europe and elsewhere conducted in order to stop the coalition armies from invading Iraq. Israel has complicated relationships with Iraq, and these relationships did not know many good moments since Saddam came to power. Saddam always supported the enemies of Israel throughout the world, sponsored terrorism aimed at Israeli and Jewish targets and did not miss an opportunity to attack Israel. Webs of terror were weaved around the world with Iraqi encouragement and sponsorship. Saddam was heavily involved in terrorist campaigns against whoever he considered to be his enemy, and he thought he had many. The guy invested all his efforts in violence. Saddam waged two wars during his dictatorship: first against Iran, then against Kuwait. Iraqi missiles targeted Israel during the 1991 Gulf War, aiming to drive a wedge between the coalition allies that ousted Saddam from Kuwait. Families of suicide bombers received large sums of money for their sacrifice. No wonder that there were no large gatherings in Israel calling Bush and Blair to halt their forces.

In 1981, when Begin attacked the Iraqi nuclear capacity (the Tamuz Operation), I was against the act. I thought at that time that this operation was aimed first and foremost to save the Likud election campaign and to grant Begin points for him to win the upcoming election, which he did. With the benefit of historical perspective now many who objected to the Tamuz Operation, including myself, recognize we were wrong. Just imagine what would have happened if Saddam possessed such a capacity now.

During the past few weeks I have listened to many experts and it is staggering to think that none, no one, was able to envisage the war campaign correctly. Most of those experts listen to one another, and speak in similar lines of reasoning. Very few said something that is extraordinary, outside the scope of common reasoning, and very little of what they said had actually materialized. None of the experts I heard depicted the process of war correctly. They had no idea about the Iraqi capacity and will. They spoke for days how difficult it would be to conquer Baghdad, and were surprised to see how insignificant the Republican Army’s resistance was. So many words and so little essence.

The coalition involvement in Iraq is expected to last for long months. I also think it is only the second stone in the domino (after Afghanistan) and that we can expect more. I have a growing feeling that September 11, 2001 was the Sarajevo act of the new millennium. I fear we are heading to a third world war. The process is much slower in comparison to the events leading to WWI. Having the experience of two world wars, and the knowledge of the destruction capacity that now exists, people are far more cautious with their actions. But I think the clash between the western world, fighting for its survival, and the enemies of democracy fighting for their identity and values, is unavoidable. The values of Al Qaeda and of the dictatorships sponsoring violence and terror cannot coexist with the values underlying the western world. We are expected to have long bloody years, with escalating violence, until the eradication of democracy’s enemies, hopefully without the destruction of humanity.

The problem is that we think in accordance with western values, forgetting that not all people actually adhere to these values. We hope for the better, while dictators don’t actually want to better this planet by peaceful means. In their view, to better the world means to wage war and terror on people whom they conceives as rivals. They use what I call in my writings “the catch of democracy”, i.e., the values underpinning democracy – first and foremost liberty and tolerance – to advance their position in the world at the expense of these same values. Because we don’t have much experience in dealing with such unscrupulous people we have let them develop and progress for many many years. Now they see that the patience of the champions of democracy is short. With the events of September 11 we began to digest what is at stake.

In our region things seem to improve. The Hamas and Islamic Jihad are reluctant to wage attacks on Israel after the coalition victory in Iraq. They certainly don’t wish to become the next prime target. Abu Mazan finally received the official role he desired for years and is starting to make an impact in reducing terror and in increasing cooperation with the IDF. Since the attack on Park Hotel in Netanya on the eve of Seder last Passover, the IDF is engaged in preemption and not only retaliation, with notable success. Life in Israel is more peaceful in comparison to the last two years. Bush and Blair announce that the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will receive close attention soon. Sharon spoke of the need to make “painful concessions”, including the evacuation of settlements, and of a two state solution.

The economic recession in Israel is very painful. We need external investments urgently. Unemployment continues to rise. Salaries going down in real terms. Taxes are high. Minimal growth, if any. People are worried about their economic security no less than about their physical security.

It is a festive Spring season. I send you my very best wishes for joyful and peaceful holidays. Have fun and relaxation. Enjoy what you have, something we don’t always appreciate as we should.

Rafi




March 2003


Dear friends and colleagues,

Back to the horrific scenes that we tried to forget and hoped they were gone. Hellish pictures covered the front pages of the newspapers. Photos of the victims, most of whom were kids and students, mostly 14-21 of age. The attack was on "my" bus, no. 37 from the central bus station to the university, and also to the "Re'aally" High School, one of the best schools not only in Haifa, but in the country, and it is also the bus to the Military Boarding School. It is a bus of many young people, thus most of the casualties are very young. We count sixteen deaths till now, and the condition of some other people in hospitals continue to be difficult. We can expect more deaths.

This massacre is unprecedented in the history of the city. It is the first time that a terrorist attack is carried out in this area of Haifa, on Mount Carmel.

One university guard was killed. He was on his work to work. A few of our students are injured in hospitals.

Gratitude to friends who called and e-mailed me, worrying about my safety. I appreciate your concern.

Ariel Sharon was able to comprise a coalition because he broke two of his explicit promises. He promised, even after the election, that the extreme right wing party, under the leadership of Ivet Libermann, will not be welcomed. When he saw that the National Unity is necessary, he did not hesitate to break his promise and to invite Libermann for talks. The latter did not shrink, did not play any honour games, and within a short time he signed the coalition documents. Then, Sharon promised a more compact government of no more than 18 ministers. So he promised. His government consists of 23 ministers and five deputy ministers, a little improvement to the previous one.

Silvan Shalom, who proved to be an extremely incompetent Finance Minister, was ousted and was sent to head the Foreign Ministry. Now he will have far more opportunities to inflict damage all over the world, and not solely in Israel.

Efi Eitam, a right-wing extremist and leader of the National Religious Party (Mafdal) is the new Minister of Housing. Guess where exactly he would aim to build. He will receive help from Yisrael Katz, Minister of Agriculture, who will utilize the funds of his ministry for similar purposes.

Benny Elon of the National Unity is new Minister of Tourism. Given there is no incoming tourism to Israel, also as a result of Elon's hawkish views, he will no doubt serve as an excellent propagandist to persuade potential tourists to come to Israel nowadays. Under his leadership, one can imagine that our tourism industry will begin to flourish. An excellent choice for thriving tourism. George Orwell probably smiles his little smile and says: I told you!

Zachi Hanegbi is the new Minister of Internal Police. Now he can at least hope for a few years of quiet for himself, after being the subject of interrogations for corruption during the past years. Hanegbi is certainly THE icon for clean policing, human rights, self-dignity and civic service. Mr. Clean himself. If this nomination did not concern my life, then I would say that it is nice to know that my prime minister has a healthy sense of humour. Unfortunately, this comes at the citizens' expense.

Limor Livnat will, undoubtedly, continue to inflict more damage on the education system that was given under her supervision for a further four harsh years. Many long years will be required to correct what she destroys. Livnat is the enemy of "the elites". Being a populist, capable politician she has no qualms crushing the universities. She cut our budgets significantly (+- 20% during the past two years) and is quite content to see us struggling under her booth. Maybe she will ease the pressure when one of the universities will declare bankruptcy and be required to close its gates. Even Livnat would not like to be remembered as the Minister of Education that brought about the closure of universities, for the first time in Israel's history.

The good thing about this coalition is that the Ministry of the Interior is no longer in the hands of the religious party Shas. The new minister, Avraham Poraz, no. 2 in the Shinuy party, is a capable liberal politician who will try to change things for the better. The problem he faces is that many of the clerks who are supposed to carry out his new policies were nominated by Shas and, to put it mildly, will not be too keen to cooperate with him. He is required to be bold and stubborn and to fight his way through. On his agenda: distancing religion from politics; civil marriages; issuing of staying permits to non-Jews who connect themselves voluntarily to Israel; leisure on Shabbat including possibly public transportation. Poraz also wishes to adopt a new policy re guest workers. As far as I understand, allowing entry to less workers but treating them better. Poraz has plenty of energy and speaks of four years in office during which he intends to change many things. I wish him luck but cannot see him serving four full years. Maybe because the thought of seeing this government in office for four years does not do me good.

Although this coalition is disastrous, I still did not want Labour to take part in it. Israel needs a strong opposition, and Labour needs to rebuild itself. I wrote a letter to Amram Mitzna congratulating him for sticking to its promises and staying out of the coalition. He has a lot to do in fostering the party and prepare it for a better future. First he needs to face the internal challenges stemming from his own party and to strengthen his position as the undisputed leader. Then he will have his hands full serving as a loyal opposition to a dangerous government.

I feel that the wings of war are stronger than ever. During the past ten years or so we did not have a decent Purim, day of joy and celebration, and I am afraid this year will not constitute a change in this regard. Quite the opposite. It seems this is my last message before the outbreak of the war. I hope to be able to write you next month, hopefully after the war, when the dust calms down.

You may find interest in:
>http://spielbergfilmarchive.org.il/kv/index.htm

With my very best wishes,

Rafi


February 2003

Dear friends and colleagues,

The soldiers' votes, which were not counted when I wrote my last report, increased the power of the right by two seats: one seat to the Likud, at the expense of One Nation; and another seat to the National Religious Party, Mafdal, at the expense of the Communist party Hadash. The final results of the election accordingly are:

Likud to the right:
Likud 38 seats
National Unity (Ivet Libermann) 7
Israel Baaliya 2

Israel Baaliya merged with Likud, total 40 seats.

Religious parties:
Shas 11
Mafdal 6
Jewish Torah 5

Right + religious: 69

Accordingly, if Sharon wishes he could easily comprise a right wing coalition. At present, Sharon declared this is not his wish. He even said that he will not invite Libermann to sit in his government.

Center:
Shinuy 15

Labour to the left:
Labour 19
Meretz 6
Hadash 3
One Nation (Amir Peretz) 3

Arab/Palestinian parties
Balad (Azmi Bshara) 3
Raam (Muslim) 2

Labour + left + Arabs: 36

Mitzna declared that he won't join a coalition headed by the Likud prior elections. Last week he negotiated entry with Sharon. I hope these are just noises, so as to say that he did not turn his back without first exploring the situation. If he will join the coalition, then he will give up on himself as a credible leader and immediately transform from a decent politician to just one more liar.

Sharon could still comprise a coalition with Shinuy, One Nation and Mafdal:
Likud 40
Shinuy 15
Mafdal 6
One Nation 3

Total: 64.

This might not be sufficient if he intends to make some significant steps to increase our security in the region, either by even more radical steps to eradicate Hamas and the Islamic Jihad, or by evacuating settlements and withdrawing IDF troops from the occupied territories.

The keys are therefore with Mitzna, which means that he will be under mounting pressure during the next few weeks. Time will tell if he is able to cope with pressure and to present himself as a leader of some stature.

People in Israel are living under the shadow of the upcoming war. I think it would be very difficult to turn the wheels back. When one sends 150,000 soldiers to fight and is riding a tiger, it is quite difficult to halt the tiger and return him into the cage. Attached please find a psychological profile of Saddam Hussein. The insightful profile was prepared by Dr. Jerrold Post for a conference on Key Adversaries sponsored by the U.S. Air Force Counterproliferation Center.

Dr. Post has devoted his entire career to the field of political psychology. Dr. Post came to George Washington after a 21 year career with the Central Intelligence Agency where he founded and directed the Center for the Analysis of Personality and Political Behavior, an interdisciplinary behavioral science unit which provided assessments of foreign leadership and decision making for the President and other senior officials to prepare for Summit meetings and other high level negotiations and for use in crisis situations. He played the lead role in developing the "Camp David profiles" of Menachem Begin and Anwar Sadat for President Jimmy Carter and initiated the U.S. government program in understanding the psychology of terrorism. He served as expert witness in the trial in the Spring of 2001 for the al Qaeda terrorists responsible for the bombing of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, and, since 9/11, has testified before the Senate, the House of Representatives, and the United Nations. I think you may find interest in his analysis.

One fact that I wish to bring to your attention that is missing in the profile: In the mid-1980s the then Iraqi Minister of Defence who was also Saddam's brother in law was killed in a helicopter accident. There were strong allegations, affirmed by Iraqi sources, that Saddam was behind that accident. There are rumours that the current Minister of Defence is out of favour.

Shabbat Shalom, with my very best wishes,

Rafi




30 January 2003

Dear Friends and colleagues,

In my last message I wrote:

This coming election might be crucial. From 1948 until 1977, Mapai and its successors (Alliance, Labour) enjoyed dominance in the house. All governments were coalition governments, but Mapai was always the center of everything. The dominance was lost in 1977, when Begin came to power. From 1977 until 2000 the Knesset was more or less split in the middle: fifty percent of the house was/is from the center to the right, and fifty percent from the center to the left. The picture might change in this coming election. I foresee a clear majority to the right, with 60 MKs and over. The left will have only about 40 MKs. The remaining 15-20 MKs will be of center parties, mainly of Shinuy (change), the anti-religious party.

Unfortunately, the Likud did better than expected and the left reached less than 40 seats.

At present, the situation is:

Likud to the right:
Likud 37 seats
National Unity (Ivet Libermann) 7
Israel Baaliya 2

Religious parties:
Shas 11
Mafdal 5
Jewish Torah 5

Right + religious: 67

Accordingly, if Sharon wishes he could easily comprise a right wing coalition. At present, Sharon declared this is not his wish. He even said that he will not invite Libermann to sit in his government.

Center:
Shinuy 15

Labour to the left:
Labour 19
Meretz 6
Hadash 4
One Nation (Amir Peretz) 4

Arab/Palestinian parties
Balad (Azmi Bshara) 3
Raam (Muslim) 2

Labour + left + Arabs: 38


On 27 November 2002 I wrote to Amram Mitzna a letter saying that I hope he will not be tempted to join another coalition government with the Likud. Stable democracy needs a strong government and no less importantly a strong coalition. Labour, and Israel, paid a high prize for sitting together with the Likud in the government. Labour lost its identity. You cannot be part of a government and then go out and criticize it for misconducts. The public is not stupid. The public realizes that Labour was part of this same government till yesterday and all it has to offer is different people, but the same direction. If the choice is between the original and the copy, the original is preferable.

Israel also paid a high price. I see a direct link between the lack of strong opposition and the rising corruption. Without sufficient safeguards and breaks, both parties are celebrating their powers and some are tempted to cross not only ethical but also legal boundaries. I think that the only exception to this anti-Likud/Labour coalition is a time of war. Such a coalition was justified in 2001, after the eruption of the Palestinian guerrilla warfare for a limited period of time. I did not imagine that Labour will stick to this coalition for years. I hoped its leaders will be wise enough to understand the political price they will have to pay if they do this. They were not clever, and now they pay the price.

Hence, I wrote to Mitzna that patience will pay in the long run. To be credible, he should offer an opposition to the government, otherwise he would lose his identity. On 8 January 2003 he answered by saying that he agrees with every word I wrote. He said: "In any event, I will never sell my values for a governmental mess of lentils". Shortly afterwards, he announced this publicly, declaring he will not join a coalition government under Sharon. This, however, proved too late and too little.

Mitzna did more than expected by becoming leader of Labour. Now he can expect long knives. He will need to show leadership and to prove that he is able to play in the elderly kindergarten with all the senior foxes. The majority of Labour leaders do not accept his leadership and will endeavor to sabotage him. We are heading as ever to more interesting times.

While Mitzna may have patience, Peres does not. His age does not allow him. He wants peace in his life time. Sharon may try to convince him to join even if this means deserting his party as Moshe Dayan did in the first Begin government back in 1977.

Sharon remains a mystery to me as to what he really wants. A few months ago he declared that Kfar Darom in the Gaza Strip is as important as Tel Aviv. With this view in mind we will not get very far, nor will the Palestinians. Yet I am sure Sharon realizes that Israel needs the American support to see any light through the dark clouds that hover above us. If he will continue with this belief, our situation will deteriorate further: no tourism; no growth; no outside investments; no build up; shaky economy; shaky education; rising unemployment; continued terror. I hope he does see this and as a leader would like us to have a better future for our children.

Yossi Sarid had called me a few weeks ago, asking my permission to use my writings on the Gaza First Plan in the Meretz campaign. I tried to help Meretz and to do whatever I was asked to do. Meretz could certainly make a better use of my services. We lost quite a bit in this election. Meretz is conceived by many as irrelevant, pursuing an ideology that is good in abstract but does not fit our brute reality. Many told me they realize that the end result might as well be as Meretz wishes, but we are too far from the end result. We cannot force the Palestinians to do peace with us, and we should be first and foremost concerned with ourselves, not with Palestinians' rights. Sarid declared recently that Arafat is irrelevant, and that he's in favour of erecting a fence. This was too late, and too little. Sarid announced his resignation from Meretz leadership, taking responsibility for his failure. This is quite uncommon in Israeli politics. Meretz is heading towards interesting times too.

I think Sharon will find it difficult to comprise a coalition. I hope Mitzna will stick to his line and will not succumb to any temptations. I hope Shinuy will stick to its promise not to sit with Shas. They should not repeat Meretz's mistake of joining a coalition with Shas. It will not work anyway. It is just a question of time when the coalition will collapse. Sharon will have to have a lot of courage to be the first prime minister in the history of Israel to comprise a coalition without the religious parties. Frankly, I don't think he has such courage.

All this means that Sharon will need a lot of time to make things happen. It is quite likely that no coalition will survive for long. I envisage yet another costly election in less than three years at most. It would not surprise me if the elections will be sooner, much sooner.

We have a very unstable elections system. This is the result of the blackmailing power of the religious parties. We need leaders with foresight to change the election system to something like the German elections system, the best in the world for my money. I am sorry to say that I don't see such leaders around. Present leaders see themselves dependent on the religious parties. They are actually not, but perceptions are sometimes more important than reality.

Our main concerns will continue to be the Palestinian terrorism, our shaky economy (I think Sylvan Shalom, the present Finance Minister, should start looking for another office), and the American-Iraqi war. We are still under the looming threat of Saddam.

Next week I am invited to Belgium to deliver four lectures, two of them on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. I intend to present the Gaza First Plan at the universities of Ghent and Liege.

With my best wishes, as ever,

Rafi